Monday, January 24, 2011

Portfolio 1/23

Investivus will be posting a Portfolio Report each week.  The report will contain real time holdings in percentages and real time performance statistics, year to date performance and performance vs. benchmarks over time, etc.  These weekly reports will also contain portfolio and strategy commentary.

N.B.  If there is a major market development during the week, you will be notified by an emergency mid week posting.  This is and will be rare.  To be successful, you need to be patient.  If you missed your window to pull the trigger on an investment, it is always better to sit on the sidelines in cash than to go all in a few days or weeks too late.  But sometimes, it is better to be a few weeks late than a few months late.  This is usually more important advice when the investment is going down because things usually go down in a hurry.

As of today, pre market on 1/24/11 here is the breakdown:

Do not buy anything here.   If you own it, hold it but if you, like me, are in cash for whatever reason ( I just switched accounts from one brokerage to a different one) ... be patient.  The Bullish Percent levels according to Dorsey Wright are in the 80% range.  Way too high to feel comfortable making new purchases in the favored asset classes.  I'd like to see those come down to the 60% or even 50% range before I jump back in.  If you have no idea what I said, don't worry.  I will explain myself later.  For now just hang in there and feel free to email info@investivusonline.com with any questions.

Asset Classes
If I was to own a portfolio, I would be about 60% in US Stocks, 30% in International Stocks and 10% split between Gold and Silver.
I would not be holding any cash, other commodities or fixed income.  All of those asset classes are under performing relative to the others you can own.

*US stock exposure would be in Consumer Discretionary (10%), REITs (10%), Tech (10%), Materials (10%) and Small Cap Stocks (20%)
*International Stock Exposure would be in emerging markets only (30%)

Portfolio Would look like this:

VCR...10%
VGT...10%
VNQ...10%
VAW...10%
VB.... 20%
VWO... 30%
GLD... 5%
SLV...5%

I like Vanguard ETF's when I can get them.  Lots more to come on this and lots of room for debate, but for now, this is the idea.

We will call today, 1/24 "Day One" and the hypothetical account value will start at $100,000.  S and P 500 is at 1284 as of 9:47 AM EST.  This will be our benchmark for performance sake.

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